Whether it be two or six years from now, Donald Trump will relinquish effective control of the Republican Party. He won’t have the legislative power that he currently holds, yet will certainly continue to have influence on American politics. To think that Trump will fade into the shadows after his time serving as President would be naive. He loves attention and will almost certainly continue to tweet about current events and politics.
So, does the Republican Party return to the establishment post-Trump or does it continue along his populist trajectory?
Trump’s approval rating among Republicans has consistently hovered over 80%, which signifies that his base is very happy with the job that he’s doing as President. This doesn’t bode well for any of the potential Republican primary challengers in the 2020 election. It’s hard to imagine that anyone in the current Republican establishment could challenge Trump’s reign atop the Party. Ted Cruz almost lost his bid for re-election to the Senate in 2018. John Kasich, while a formidable politician, seems out of place in the current state of the Republican Party. Mitt Romney? Marco Rubio? Chris Christie? Another Bush relative? I’m not going to waste your time.
If you believe that a genuine split could happen within the Republican Party, in which a more moderate conservative poaches a significant amount of support from the President, then John Kasich is your best bet. He makes cogent arguments, is level-headed, and has a track record. But how likely is there to be a split given President Trump’s unwavering adoration among his supporters? Not very.
Trump is willing to say and do whatever it takes to maintain the support of his followers. Say what you want about him, the man knows his audience. Have you seen those rallies? He has the crowd on the end of a string.
“Who’s gonna pay for the wall?” “MEXICO!”
“LOCK HER UP! LOCK HER UP”
“CNN SUCKS! CNN SUCKS!”
Now, close your eyes and imagine any of the other Republican candidates in 2016 leading one of those rallies. Oh, you can’t? Herein lies the problem for never-Trump Republicans. Not only do Trump’s supporters approve of the job that he’s doing, they enthusiastically approve. No one else in the Republican field can drum up that kind of excitement. Long gone are the days where elections were won with sober policy and measured speech. We’re in a new, post-Trump era.
Let’s just assume, hypothetically, that Trump decides to step away from politics after his first term. Who fills the void? Certainly, there will be the establishment candidates that I mentioned previously. It’s unlikely, however, that the pro-Trump republicans will be content with those choices. After you’ve had a taste of Orange Populist, how can you go back to skim milk? That being said, maybe you can make a case for Mike Pence. He doesn’t have the stain of having run against Trump in a primary. He has stood by the President at every step of his presidency. His supporters surely see him as an extension of Trump, even if they have wildly different worldviews.
Mike Pence’s presidential ambitions are a secret to no one. As Harry McCawley put it, “Mike Pence wanted to be President practically since he popped out of the womb.” It seems highly unlikely, however, that Pence would challenge Trump if he were to run again in 2020. Assuming that Trump doesn’t get impeached before the 2020 election, Pence won’t play into the equation until 2024.
A lot can change in six years, so this is all very speculative. Yet, we can count on a couple of things. There will be a group of establishment politicians that will vie for the nomination and Mike Pence will make his case. While Pence is seen as closely allied with Trump, he is far from being a charismatic populist. Trump’s policies didn’t get him to where he is today, his charisma did. He’s in tune with his base like no other politician…except maybe one.
Can you guess who it is? Ok, I’ll give you some hints. He’s got the slicked back hair, he’s an avid twitter user, and he has the unwavering support of his father. Sounds a lot like Donald Trump, right? Well, technically you’re right. It’s Donald Trump Jr.
Trump Jr. has made it no secret that he is interested in running for political office. Simply by way of proxy, he’ll garner a ton of support from the die-hard Trump fans. As we’ve seen in the past couple of years, playing to your core base can get you pretty far in today’s political landscape. Donald Trump Sr. has shattered any illusion that the President of the United States needs to be steeped in historical knowledge or have a deep understanding of our political system. Those would have been the biggest hurdles for Trump Jr. pre-2016. Now that Trump Sr. has blown the game wide open, Trump Jr. is in line to take the populist mantle.
Whether or not Trump Jr. is able to enter the political arena, however, will depend largely on what the Mueller probe uncovers. Given the nature of Trump Jr.’s actions surrounding that fateful meeting at Trump Tower in June of 2016, he may not be in a position to do much of anything, let alone run for President. All indications are that Mueller’s investigation is nearing its end. When it does, we’ll have a better sense of where Trump Jr. fits into the future of the Republican Party.
Until then, we are left to wonder…will Republicans return to the establishment or will they continue to ride the populist wave? My bet is on the latter.
Deconstructed Politics 